Minority Governments can work: Do we really need an election now? Focus on electoral systems and how minority governments work in other countries
The Conservatives have made it clear that they will be toppling the government soon (unless something is done to change their minds and the Bloc Quebecois mind).
Personally i think this is a huge waste of time (and money). But not for the general reasons that people give (at least in my experience and thought).
I'm a large supporter of PR (proportional representation). Why? Well there are actually a number of reasons.
The first is that the way people vote is reflected in parliament. And that goes for parties i like and parties i don't' like. Consider this: The NDP got about the same proportion of the vote as the Conservative Party did in the last vote. But the number of seats is drastically different? Or the election when the PC's dropped to two seats. They had about 20% of the vote---it was just too spread out (like the NDP's and the Green's).
While you can never provide a perfect democracy it seems to me that having an electoral system that distorts the vote as much as ours does is not very democratic. But actually it was designed to work that way in England, the idea being that the government would be better able to rule. And only developed countries that use it are from England (more or less if you look at the US). Right now only Canada, the US and Great Britain use only a first past the post system in voting (where whoever gets the most votes in an area gets the seat and nobody else does even if they have 49% of the vote).
Australia elects its Senate by Proportional Representation and its House of Commons by First Past the Post (what we use in Canada) . Germany uses both systems in a rather complicated way that results in smaller parties getting seats, but not enough to have a large impact. Still their presence makes a big difference. For example they have Green Party seats because the Greens get a large enough proportion of the vote even though they don't win any first past the post systems. And your vote doesn't need to be strategic. If you want you vote for the Greens and there will be some representation of that. I don't like the German system much because it still generally ends up with governments that are formed similar to first past the post systems. But at least you do get some seats for smaller parties that get votes.
Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Finland use systems of PR that are similar to each other. Proportional representation is not used in France but there is a runoff for President. This means they have an election and then the top two winners run against each other (i believe if one person has 50% of the vote they don't have one. I'm not sure and it hasn't happened yet). Switzerland has a weird system almost no one understands but it is closest to PR.
Every country that has members in the EU elects their EU members using proportional representation.
None of these systems are perfect (most of the countries have different ways of using proportional representation--some with very slight differences some with huge differences from neighbouring countries).
Now the first argument i usually hear about PR is that it leads to minority governments. This is true. However you need to understand that if you are working in a system that will always elect minority governments that the parties find a way of creating alliances. Otherwise all they will be doing is perpetual elections and people don't like that. Even the famed Italy didn't have elections near as often as people think. What gets quoted is the number of governments. But in most cases this is where different parties decide to work with each other---they don't have an election every time they change governments. They are using partly a first past the post system now i believe but i think some of it is still proportional representation. In any case they are the general exception.
So the parties learn to make alliances (publicly with rules or not) and they get along to writing legislation. The elections may be somewhat more frequent but not that much more, and people in the countries generally like the way it elects their governments. Because every vote does count!
The other usual example against proportional representation is that Hitler was elected under proportional representation. Actually it isn't that simple. Regardless most systems changed (or were created) to require a party to get 5% of the vote to get any seats and this gets rid of the problem of having very lowly supported fringe parties getting seats (this was mostly done because of how Hitler came to power). Another good example of what happens if you have a low threshold is Israel. They recently changed from a 1% threshold to a 2% threshold. Either a threshold of 5% of the vote or a way of having electoral districts with more than one person per party (so that you split those proptionally) works much better and tends to keep fringe radical parties out. Of course that depends on how you define fringe radical and in recent years there have been some small distasteful people elected (Communist Parties almost always get some seats but ones that are possible to work with. Europeans don't have our allergy to Communist no matter what kind). The real parties have been extreme right or extreme left. They often only get no seats or a very low proportion of the seats but it is embarrassing to some countries.
Regardless i think these countries have a better way of electing their representatives. My vote, your vote, the proportion of the vote matters a lot more. In a way our funding system of parties now works that way. Each party gets $1.75 a year for each vote it got in the last election as long as they got 2% of the vote (and the Green Party is now getting some funding as a result--which i think is good even if i'm not a Green Party member).
With Canada being Canada there would probably need to be a regional component. Most proportional representation systems involve a regional component to larger or smaller degrees. It could be like in Australia where one house is elected by first past the post and the Senate is elected by proportional representation or one where you put several districts together but its still regional in nature (if you put 10 ridings together an elected by PR you would get a much different result then we currently do).
As to the wonders of majority governments. Proportional representation governments are generally stable (as mentioned above). Regardless though, as happens in Canada with first past the post systems is it really all that much of a democracy if a party with 40% of the vote is almost certain to have a large majority of the seats? It can even be done with less than that percentage--it depends. But 40% is usually almost a guarantee. 45% is certain.
Also we need to realize that our governments have changed. 15 years ago Canada was considered a two party country or a two and a half party depending on who you asked (the NDP at the time being the half). At the moment we have 4 parties and we have had 5 parties up until quite recently.
As there are more parties the proportion of the vote left over in first past the vote systems becomes more important. All of this business of strategic voting personally drives me up the wall. People shouldn't have to vote stragically. They should vote and have their vote counted as long as 5% in the area (defining area will change on how you work the system) of the vote is required. We might have some of the smaller parties getting seats as people no longer feel they need to vote strategically. In all likelihood the NDP, Green, Communist and some right wing party will likely get seats they didn't used to. But is the world going to end if the Communist Party of Canada picks up a seat or two? It hasn't ended in Sweden, in fact its really not an issue. They have several Communist Parties (we have two in Canada). They don't hold a lot of power but in a multi party coalition they may get some say. If 5% of the population voted for them i don't see why they shouldn't. A very right wing party got one or two seats in Sweden or Denmark a few years ago. People sat down and thought about what it meant, and it was somewhat of a national embarrassment. But their system didn't end either.
If you want to keep ridings then you use a system where you effectively increase the size of the riding and put more seats in it or just put more seats in. This also allows for regional representation. Or you can have both by following Australia's lead. First Past the Post for the House of Commons and PR for the Senate. And their Senate has more powers that ours which i believe was part of the change.
As far as i can see another election before the Gomery report is out is really a waste of time. The largest likelihood would be a Conservative minority government. We would loose some good legislation that is on the floor such as same sex marriage (and i think this is part of why they want to call an election...the talk came pretty quickly after their civil union amendment didn't pass).
While this government has been slowed down by being a minority if you look at the details i think it is more democratic. The NDP and Bloc are getting more seats on committees where the legislation is really hashed out---in some cases enough to make it hard to pass a bill neither agrees with (and with Conservative support for sure). Both of these parties get a good proportion of the vote. The BQ generally has more seats because it is regional and the first past the post system favours a regional party. But if 17% of people vote NDP or PC should they not have close to 17% of the say. The Conservatives got more seats than the NDP because their support was more regional (its not just the Bloc that gets an advantage, and depending on the era it can be the Liberal Party getting a regional advantage. And if 6% of the people in British Columbia voted Green (they did) why should they not have a seat in the House of Commons. Or more than one!
My prediction would be that we are likely looking at minority governments for a while because of regional voting and general voting. Does it then make any sense to call another election? It seems to me that another election without Gomery is a waste of time. And really there doesn't necessarily need to be another election right then either depending. But a election in less than a year is a waste of everybody's time and money. We should wait it out and look for the positives of minority governments---not just the negatives. P




